The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently monitoring a broad area of low pressure moving across Florida, with potential for tropical development as it shifts westward into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

As of Tuesday, the system has a 40% chance of development over the next 48 hours and the same 40% chance over the next seven days, according to the latest NHC outlook.

While the system does not currently show signs of strong organization, forecasters caution that once it reaches the warm waters of the Gulf, conditions may become more favorable for development. Even if it does not strengthen into a tropical depression or named storm, the disturbance is already expected to bring heavy rainfall and localized flooding to parts of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.

Rain bands from the system have already begun soaking Central and South Florida, including cities like Tampa, Orlando, Miami, and Naples. The NHC and local meteorologists are advising residents in flood-prone areas to stay alert for flash flood watches and warnings that may be issued throughout the week.

Forecasters emphasize that this is not a major storm yet, but early tropical activity like this reflects a larger pattern. Meteorologists have warned that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could be very active, driven by record-high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf, along with weakening El Niño conditions.

Residents in the Southeast U.S. are urged to monitor updates from official sources, including the National Hurricane Center and local emergency management offices. Preparedness plans should be reviewed, even if the system remains weak, as torrential rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal impacts may occur.